Dokument 11
Memorandum von Richard M. Scammon für John H. Ferguson, Stellvertretender Leiter des Politischen Planungsstabes im State Department, betr. freie Wahlen in Deutschland vom 11. April 1952 (Top Secret)
Urheber
Richard M. Scammon
Datum
19520411
Bestand/Sign.
National Archives, Washington (D.C), RG 59, Records of the Policy Planning Staff 1947-1953, country and areafiles, Germany, Box 16
The responses to the questions put me this morning follow. Under all four situations the estimates rest on the basic premise that the West German government and public opinion have completely accepted the bona fide nature of these propositions and are convinced that the USSR will in fact carry out the respective measures.
| A. | A freely elected all-German Government, with withdrawal ofall occupation forces and relinquishment of the Soviet AG's. This course would be taken by the West Germans as a complete reversal of Soviet policies. It would be considered as evidence that the USSR were willing to abandon all instruments of economic and political power. The SED would be relegated to the position of a minor political force with the USSR restricted to pressures such as those any other foreign power might bring to bear on Germany. In this eventuality the West German government would not be in a position to continue successfully its present integration policies with the West. |
| B. | A freely elected all-German Govemment4 with withdrawal ofall occupationforces, but with retention ofthe Soviet AG's. Retention of the Soviet AG's would create suspicion among the Germans that the USSR would want to retain this lever not only for purely economic reasons, but also as a device to retain some administrative hold in Germany and to use such hold for economic pressure. The Germans, moreover, would fear that disputes over the status of the AG's would lead to renewed open Soviet interference. In the balance however, while such a situation would be distasteful to the Germans, reestablishment of an otherwise sovereign German government and the withdrawal of occupation troops would outweight this factor. The re-establishment of true legislative and administrative sovereignty over the whole country would make the Germans confident of their ability to keep polltical and economic interference in their affairs emanating from the Soviet AG's well in check and eventually allow them to buy off the Russians. The conclusion would therefore be identical with that under A. |
| C. | A freely elected all-German Government, but with maintenance ofoccupationforces and Soviet AG's, Retention of Soviet troops (presumably in substantial numbers and well distributed over the whole of Eastern Germany) would in the German eyes negate the very freedom and sovereignty of a united Germany. It would open the spectre of a continuation of the present East-West struggle over and in Germany in oniy a slightly modified version. Morcover, in this eventuallty the Germans would not feel confident of their ability to circumscribe and in time reduce the political and social influences emanating from the Soviet AG's. In this situation they would be scarcely willing to even temporarily renounce their claim to their eastern territories in exchange for a highly precarious autonomy. In this eventuality therefore EDC ratification would not likely be jeopardized. |
| D. | A freely elected all-German Government, relinquishment of the Soviet AG's, but maintenance of occupation forces. As the retention of Soviet troops is the primary factor which would predispose the Germans towards rej«ecting a Soviet offer, the relinquishing of the Soviet AG's would not measurably change the German assessment of the Soviet proposal. German reaction would therefore not be very much different from the one described under C. |
Bearbeiter: hgd — URL dieses Dokuments: http://digam.net/index.php?doc=5029
—
URL dieser Ausstellung: http://digam.net/index.php?exp=230
© 2024 DigAM - digitales archiv marburg /
Hessisches Staatsarchiv Marburg, Veröffentlichung
nur mit Genehmigung
Anfragen zu Reproduktionen in hoher Auflösung und druckfähige Vorlagen erhalten Sie von der unter Bestand/Sign. genannten Einrichtung.
Anfragen zu Reproduktionen in hoher Auflösung und druckfähige Vorlagen erhalten Sie von der unter Bestand/Sign. genannten Einrichtung.